Varia argumenta #

These are my own notebooks — thoughts I kept while reading and thinking, now published as they were written. They are conjectures, not conclusions: some may be false, some I have already changed my mind about, and all of them are attempts rather than answers.

I have gathered them here by theme so they can be read a little at a time. Start wherever you like.

The themes #

• Antifragility & risk — convexity, black swans, and skin in the game.
• Maps, models & power laws — why the map is never the territory, and what compounding error does to a theory.
• Truth, doubt & Popper — conjecture and refutation, the limits of language, and how little we know.